Let’s be Frank
-6.60, -3.30, +0.62. These are the team relative 5v5 xGF%1 marks for Owen Tippett, Frank Vatrano, and Maxim Mamin, respectively.
These are three Panthers forwards rumored to be available on the trade market. To whatever extent those rumors have root in fact, we can also group these players together as fringe contributors, ones who have been healthy scratched by Andrew Brunette this season, or even sent to the AHL in Tippett and Mamin’s cases.
Then there’s the curious case of Noel Acciari, who has only played twice thus far this season. Acciari had performed poorly in underlying numbers the past two years, with relative CF% well into the negatives, mostly explained by his deployment in exclusively defensive situations. Acciari has only played 21:21 at 5v5 this season, but those minutes went very well. Florida outshot its opponents 14-7 and kept a 72.3% xG in Noel Acciari’s 5v5 minutes.
All four players have become victims of Florida’s success, with depth pieces like Mason Marchment and Ryan Lomberg seeing their stature growing as the Panthers continue their winning ways. Tippett actually has a higher goal scoring pace this season than he did last; Vatrano has a higher point production pace this season than he did last as well. The problem with Tippett and Vatrano is their play-driving. The two of them, when combined with Joe Thornton, held their heads above water when injuries forced them to hold down the third line for Florida. That trio won’t compare to what has been the Cats’ usual third line this season, and the fourth line has done very well in its role too.
While Tippett's shooting percentage and goal-scoring drought remains perplexing, we are generally seeing the same results from Vatrano and Tippett this season as we did in years past. Maxim Mamin also has a lower points/60 mark at 5-on-5 play this season than nearly every Panther forward regular, like Vatrano and Tippett. Thus, Mamin faces similar hurdles to become a lineup regular. Should injuries strike, the three will need to be ready to fill roles for the Cats in the home stretch. At this point, however, I feel equipped to say these players are unlikely to see their fates turn around.
Off the Beaten Path
The same old names linked to the Panthers at deadline time are getting stale. How about some fresh faces?
A player I could see the Panthers having some interest in is Scott Mayfield, a right-handed defenseman currently playing for the New York Islanders. Mayfield is quite affordable at just a $1.5 million cap hit for the next two seasons, and offers a quite different element at third pairing than current Panthers 3RD Brandon Montour. Should the Panthers heed warnings that they need to tighten up their back end in order to win in the playoffs, Montour is a player they would need to look at improving upon; he consistently posts some of the blue line’s weakest defensive numbers.
Calle Jarnkrok could have just a good a chance as anyone to be the 2022 trade deadline’s version of Blake Coleman or Barclay Goodrow. Jarnkrok is a defensively responsible right winger that could serve as a foil to the offensively gifted but defensively irresponsible Anthony Duclair. He’s not a player to turn to for extra goal support, but Panthers GM Bill Zito might not mind that come playoff time.
Anton Forsberg could be the cost-effective option at goalie that Florida seems hard up for. Forsberg is 29 years old and unlikely to be part of Ottawa’s future in net. The Swedish goalie has held his own in net for the Senators, posting a .917 and 4.2 goals saved above expected in 24 appearances.
Net Losses
Spencer Knight had a rough weekend in the AHL, allowing 8 goals on 39 shots and taking two losses for the Checkers. His save percentage in eight AHL starts has dropped to .901 after hanging in the .920s prior to the trip. Goalie growing pains are tough.
Knight will likely get another start for Charlotte tonight, as they take on the Hershey Bears at 7:05 PM.
via Natural Stat Trick