I Write Sens Not Tragedies
It’s been a forgettable season in Ottawa, as the beginning of the promised “era of unprecedented success” is not on track to produce any success (or anything unprecedented). The one highlight in a season of darkness for the Senators was an 8-2 win over Florida in the two teams’ last meeting, where Spencer Knight was constantly left exposed by Panthers defenders who were about to test positive for COVID.
Ottawa is without their all-star Drake Batherson, who continues to miss out with an injury he suffered in January. Their top players in his stead include Thomas Chabot, who is having a down season with 28 points in 47 games; half of those points are secondary assists. Brady Tkachuck signed a fat contract coming into this season and has rewarded his team with 38 points in 47 games, including 8 5v5 goals.
Ottawa’s most promising prospects won’t yet be seen in their lineup, as Shane Pinto joins Batherson on the IR, and Jake Sanderson is still at the University of North Dakota.
Starting in net for the Senators? Anton Forsberg. Where have I heard that name before…
The Senators are below 50% in all major possession stats, and sit between 46 and 46.5% in both 5v5 CF% and XG% on the season. Florida is massive favorites tonight, and will likely control the puck all game. But as we’ve seen in the last three games, a goaltending mismatch can render that puck possession pointless.
Don’t Tell Me About Hart
I’ll take the inevitable heat for saying it, but for all of Jonathan Huberdeau’s phenomenal success this year, I still wouldn’t have him ranked amongst the top three or five players this year.
Dom Loose Chicken of the Athletic has taken a lot of heat for poking some holes in Huberdeau’s hart case, and I mostly would agree with his cases. Here are the cliffnotes of the case against Huberdeau:
Defense: The trio of Anthony Duclair, Sam Bennett and Huberdeau put up a phenomenal 4.17 expected goals and 6.02 actual goals per 60 minutes. But they concede 3.57 expected goals per 60, the worst mark on the team for lines who’ve played 50 minutes together. When you reduce it to 30 minutes, swapping Bennett out for Anton Lundell gives you the new worst xGA/60 line on the Cats.
Teammates: Florida has one of the league’s highest scoring lines on a per-minute basis, and Jonathan Huberdeau doesn’t even play on that line. The collection of offensive talent Huberdeau is able to play with includes Aleksander Barkov, Carter Verhaeghe, Aaron Ekblad, Sam Reinhart, and that doesn’t include players who’ve had breakout offensive seasons like Mason Marchment or Lundell.
Team: Florida leads the league in goals, thus making Huberdeau’s point contributions less valuable than the same number would be to a team that doesn’t score as much, like Calgary or Edmonton. Both those teams need to score more than 35 goals to catch up to the Panthers.
A Knight to Remember
I won’t be lamenting a poor performance by Spencer Knight this time. Last night in Hershey, Knight had a 44 save shutout and pretty much single-handedly carried the Charlotte Checkers to a 3-0 win. Two of those Checkers goals were empty netters.
Spencer Knight won’t turn 21 for more than a month. What a time to be a Florida Panthers fan.