Ahead of Schedule
Florida’s strength of schedule recently hasn’t been too stressful, with games against Buffalo, Detroit, and Ottawa not proving to be much of a test. There will be a couple of tough games coming up for Florida on their US west coast road swing, but after that, the sledding will be almost all smooth for the Cats.
To put it into perspective, only 8 of the Panthers’ remaining 25 games will be against playoff teams. Two of their next four are among those 8, so after that, only six of Florida’s final 21 opponents will be against playoff teams, under 30%. Only two of those games are set to be against teams who will have home ice in the first round of the playoffs, and one of those opponents is the L.A. Kings.
The bad news is that several of Florida’s toughest remaining games come on the second night of a back-to-back, including their first away game vs Toronto and their last remaining game vs Tampa Bay, which could go a long way in determining the crucial top seeding in the Atlantic Division.
Promises Kept
They say a person can’t be two places at once, but don’t tell that to Aaron Ekblad. The Panthers’ number one on the blueline has found a way to maintain a stout defensive presence in his own zone while acting essentially as a fourth forward on the other end of the ice. When Ekblad activates and finds himself deeper into the offensive zone, you see the skills showing of a player that would seamlessly fit into the Panthers’ top nine.
Remember when he was granted exceptional status, then drafted 1st overall? Ekblad is meeting all of that promise and more.
Considering the minutes he plays (which can often be a misleading sign when evaluating defensemen, so hear me out ), being able to impact the game in the way he does while he’s on the ice is even more remarkable. Ekblad improves the Panthers’ possession rates and expected goals rates when he steps on the ice, both for and against.
Ekblad’s power play production, which we saw so much of in the 2021 season, was the missing ingredient to his recipe for Norris Trophy contention. Now that the Cats regularly strike on the unit he quarterbacks, all the pieces are in place. The ridiculous season Cale Makar’s produced probably makes him the winner, but Ekblad is on pace to deserve a finalist slot.
The Defence Rests
Jonathan Huberdeau is one of 20 Panthers forwards who has played over 250 minutes at 5v5 this season. Amongst those 20, some rankings for Huberdeau:
Offensive Zone Starts/60: 1st
O-Zone Start%: 1st
Defensive Zone Start%: 19th
Goals Against/60: 20th
xG Against/60: 18th
High Danger Chances Against/60: 18th
Some context worth discussing is that Huberdeau’s on-ice save % lags well below teammates, hanging at a ridiculously low .896. His on-ice shooting percentage (11.15%) makes up for that, though.
The situation is not as dire as the numbers suggest, but I don’t know how a player can hurt his team this much on defense without equaling that by driving their team’s offense more than any other player. Especially when Auston Matthews and other Hart candidates this year are putting up similar point totals and not giving up anything defensively (in the same way Aaron Ekblad doesn’t concede anything defensively to produce offensively).