Know Your Enemy
Florida’s journey to Stanley Cup glory begins tonight at 7:30 at FLA Live Arena. The Panthers’ first test in the postseason is the one-time champion Washington Capitals. Since that year, when the Capitals finished in first in the Metropolitan division and won four consecutive playoff series, the Capitals have twice finished first in the metropolitan, once finished second, and this year, have fallen all the way to eighth in the conference. In all three previous seasons, the Capitals fell in the first round of the playoffs, and they’ve won six total playoff games since; only two of those wins have come in the last two years.
Washington hasn’t started a series as the lower seed since 2018, in the finals, where they defeated Vegas in five games. Game 1 in Florida will be their first game 1 on the road since then. This is a team used to having many expectations on them into the postseason. Not this time, as Florida is widely preferred as favorites by sportsbooks and experts alike.
What to Watch For in Game 1
Most interesting matchups for me as these teams feel eachother out in their opening tilt:
Iron Sharpens Iron: Panthers 4th line vs Capitals 4th line
Since acquiring Johan Larsson at the trade deadline and dropping him with Nic Dowd and Garnet Hathaway, Washington’s enjoyed a significant advantage against other teams’ fourth lines, with that Larsson-Dowd-Hathaway combination achieving 65.6% of expected goals in 95 5v5 minutes together. Together all year, Florida’s 4th line of Ryan Lomberg, Eetu Luostarinen, and Patric Hörnqvist has been in the 60%s of expected goals all season, finishing with a 61.8% mark in 209 5v5 minutes together. Both of these teams are used to dominating when their fourth lines match up against the other teams’ fourth lines, but what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object?
Turn on the Bright Lights: Panthers PP vs Capitals PK
A key deadline acquisition plays into Florida’s power play as well, with the Panthers scoring 12.76 goals per 60 minutes played at 5v4 when Claude Giroux is on the ice. Washington will have to take penalties in this series, as they are the much slower team. Are they going to be able to weather the storm of Florida’s heavy artillery power play? The Capitals have fared well in the regular season on the PK, finishing tenth at 4v5 this year in goals against per 60 (6.41). If Washington is going to steal one or two victories in the sunshine state, they can’t let the Panthers find a rhythm at 5v4.
Man on Fire: Sam Bennett vs Tom Wilson
Slated on each team’s second line, Sam Bennett and Tom Wilson bring baggage of playoff suspensions past into this first round series. As luck would have it, it looks like they’ll be sharing the ice at many moments of it. Who’s likely to have the upper hand in what will be the hockey equivalent of a steel cage match?